Forecasting websites generally provide well-formed questions, but it’s worth knowing what goes into generating them. Valuable questions tend to be ones where there are clear parameters: a discrete time period with a beginning and end, unambiguous wording, and specific sources for how a question will be resolved.
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An important lesson I have learned from my last few years of forecasting is to be willing to challenge my own expectations. Striking the right balance between under- and over-reacting to new evidence requires patience and humility; it’s always important to own errors.
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My failure to give enough weight to these two facts highlights an important lesson in forecasting: spend time with the subject matter. There’s no point trying to make predictions with only cursory knowledge of the question you’re forecasting.
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I think it’s important not to build an overly complicated model (as this can lead to greater errors along the way), but it helps to brainstorm about any potential factors that might play a role. I am of the opinion that writing down all of your ideas, no matter how far-fetched, is valuable to the forecasting process. Choosing not to filter enables creativity — which to me is also among the most enjoyable parts of forecasting.
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