(highlight:: The Misconceptions About Happiness: The Arrival Fallacy
Summary:
People often put a lot of effort into trying to be happy, but they still feel unsatisfied.
This is because we have misconceptions about what will make us happy. We believe that if certain things happen, like getting a promotion, a higher salary, or achieving a specific goal, we will finally be happy.
However, studies show that these things only provide a temporary happiness boost.
Lasting happiness comes from something else.
This misconception is known as the arrival fallacy or the happily ever after fallacy. We mistakenly predict that achieving certain things will make us happier than it actually does, and the happiness doesn't last as long as we expect. This sets us up for disappointment and the belief that we need to keep striving for more to finally be happy. Even wealthy individuals fall into this trap, thinking that more money or success will bring them happiness. However, they too realize that it doesn't fulfill them as they anticipated.
We need to recognize and correct our bias in affective forecasting, understanding that the intensity and duration of happiness from external achievements are often overestimated.
Transcript:
Speaker 2
Ton of effort and energy into being happy, and yet so few of us actually seem happy. Why not? Like, what misconceptions do we have about happiness?
Speaker 1
I mean, I think it's important to start with this idea that we put so much effort in, right? Because I think you could sometimes think about happiness of like, oh, we're all not feeling so happy. And that's because we're not trying. Like, we need to try more. And I think that's not the problem. I think people are putting tremendous energy into the kinds of things that they think are going to make them feel good, feel successful, you know, lead to a meaningful life. But then even though we're putting in this much effort, we're kind of not getting anywhere. And I think the issue is that our minds, the way I like to talk about on the podcast is that our minds lie to us about the kinds of things that make us happy. We have these strong intuitions that, you know, if this would happen, I would be happily ever after, right? You know, if like I have the perfect job or if I get a higher salary or if I get a certain accolade at work, if I become partner or for my students, if I get, you know, perfect grades, like, People think if those things happen that they'll feel happier. And, you know, there's studies that look at people who get those wonderful things. And yeah, you get a little happiness boost for a little while, but it doesn't seem to last. Lasting happiness comes from something else. And so, yeah, so the problem isn't that we're not working at it. It's that we have these misconceptions about the kinds of things that are really going to make us feel better. But, you know, we really need that. We need some, like, work to figure out the right sorts of things that will make us feel good.
Speaker 2
So the way that I think of people like this, I call them happy if or happy when people, because they're not happy in the moment. They're happy when something, when I get a promotion, when I get a relationship, when I get a new car, when I get a new house, I'll be happy then. And then why is it that we never seem to be happy when that happens? Yeah, well, this is a bias that researchers call the arrival fallacy. It's really like the happily ever after fallacy. Like, when this happens, I'll be happy.
Speaker 1
And, you know, it's not like we're mis-predicting. You know, you get a new house and, like, yeah, that feels good, but it doesn't feel as good as you're going to think. And it doesn't feel good for as long as you're going to think. These are errors in what we call affective forecasting. You're forecasting that you're going to be way happier, but we're off about the intensity. It's not as good as we predict, usually. And we're off about the duration. It doesn't feel good for as long as we tend to predict. And that means we're setting ourselves up for some disappointment, right? And I think this is the kind of thing that happens for the, like, I'll be happy when kind of people, right? You know, it's like, I'll be happy when I get a promotion. And then you get the promotion. You're like, well, that didn't work. I guess I need another promotion. This happens a lot with salary, right? Like, I'll be happy if I get a raise. I'll be happy if I get this amount of money. And you get there and you don't get as happy as you thought. And you don't think, well, I was wrong. It wasn't salary. I should go for something else. You think, ah, it wasn't enough money. You know, if I get the next promotion and the next promotion. And, you know, it's one thing to think this, you know, if you're earning, like, an average American income, but what's funny is even if you look at incredibly wealthy people, they have The same mistaken intuitions about money. On my podcast, The Happiness Lab, I interviewed this great guy, Clay Cockrell, who's a wealth psychologist. He's a, like, mental health professional that works with their rich and famous. And, you know, first, first of all, shocking is that he has a job, right? You know, based on our misconceptions, it's like, you know, the incredibly wealthy should have no mental health problems. But they have a ton. And one of the biggest ones he sees is, is exactly this. Like, these wealthy folks thought, like, when I become a millionaire, you know, then I'll be happy. And then that didn't work. You're like, well, maybe I need, I need in the tens of millions. I need to be able to buy, you know, multiple vacation houses or for people he works with in the hundred millions. It's like, well, I guess I have to become a billionaire. Once I can say I'm a billionaire, then I'll really be happy. And at no point do they go through these steps and think, like, wait a minute, you know, the last five carrots, you know, like I put for myself when I got to the carrot, it didn't work in the Way that I thought, you know, maybe I'm wrong. And so, yeah, so this is, this is, this is our bias of affective forecasting. We kind of, we get wrong, not the direction. We kind of know good things are going to make us feel good. But we definitely get wrong. The intensity and the duration that that, that boost in happiness is going to last.)
- Time 0:04:48
-

(highlight:: The Happiness Arrival Fallacy
Key takeaways:
• The arrival fallacy is a common cognitive bias that leads people to overestimate the happiness they will feel after achieving a particular goal or event.
• This bias is often caused by the unrealistic expectations that come with the arrival of a new, positive event.
Transcript:
Speaker 2
I get a promotion, when I get a relationship, when I get a new car, when I get a new house, I'll be happy then. And then why is it that we never seem to be happy when that happens? Yeah, well, this is a bias that researchers call the arrival fallacy. It's really like the happily ever after fallacy. Like, when this happens, I'll be happy.
Speaker 1
And, you know, it's not like we're mis-predicting. You know, you get a new house and, like, yeah, that feels good, but it doesn't feel as good as you're going to think. And)
- Time 0:06:22
-

(highlight:: The Misconceptions About Happiness: The Arrival Fallacy
Summary:
People often put a lot of effort into trying to be happy, but they still feel unsatisfied.
This is because we have misconceptions about what will make us happy. We believe that if certain things happen, like getting a promotion, a higher salary, or achieving a specific goal, we will finally be happy.
However, studies show that these things only provide a temporary happiness boost.
Lasting happiness comes from something else.
This misconception is known as the arrival fallacy or the happily ever after fallacy. We mistakenly predict that achieving certain things will make us happier than it actually does, and the happiness doesn't last as long as we expect. This sets us up for disappointment and the belief that we need to keep striving for more to finally be happy. Even wealthy individuals fall into this trap, thinking that more money or success will bring them happiness. However, they too realize that it doesn't fulfill them as they anticipated.
We need to recognize and correct our bias in affective forecasting, understanding that the intensity and duration of happiness from external achievements are often overestimated.
Transcript:
Speaker 2
Ton of effort and energy into being happy, and yet so few of us actually seem happy. Why not? Like, what misconceptions do we have about happiness?
Speaker 1
I mean, I think it's important to start with this idea that we put so much effort in, right? Because I think you could sometimes think about happiness of like, oh, we're all not feeling so happy. And that's because we're not trying. Like, we need to try more. And I think that's not the problem. I think people are putting tremendous energy into the kinds of things that they think are going to make them feel good, feel successful, you know, lead to a meaningful life. But then even though we're putting in this much effort, we're kind of not getting anywhere. And I think the issue is that our minds, the way I like to talk about on the podcast is that our minds lie to us about the kinds of things that make us happy. We have these strong intuitions that, you know, if this would happen, I would be happily ever after, right? You know, if like I have the perfect job or if I get a higher salary or if I get a certain accolade at work, if I become partner or for my students, if I get, you know, perfect grades, like, People think if those things happen that they'll feel happier. And, you know, there's studies that look at people who get those wonderful things. And yeah, you get a little happiness boost for a little while, but it doesn't seem to last. Lasting happiness comes from something else. And so, yeah, so the problem isn't that we're not working at it. It's that we have these misconceptions about the kinds of things that are really going to make us feel better. But, you know, we really need that. We need some, like, work to figure out the right sorts of things that will make us feel good.
Speaker 2
So the way that I think of people like this, I call them happy if or happy when people, because they're not happy in the moment. They're happy when something, when I get a promotion, when I get a relationship, when I get a new car, when I get a new house, I'll be happy then. And then why is it that we never seem to be happy when that happens? Yeah, well, this is a bias that researchers call the arrival fallacy. It's really like the happily ever after fallacy. Like, when this happens, I'll be happy.
Speaker 1
And, you know, it's not like we're mis-predicting. You know, you get a new house and, like, yeah, that feels good, but it doesn't feel as good as you're going to think. And it doesn't feel good for as long as you're going to think. These are errors in what we call affective forecasting. You're forecasting that you're going to be way happier, but we're off about the intensity. It's not as good as we predict, usually. And we're off about the duration. It doesn't feel good for as long as we tend to predict. And that means we're setting ourselves up for some disappointment, right? And I think this is the kind of thing that happens for the, like, I'll be happy when kind of people, right? You know, it's like, I'll be happy when I get a promotion. And then you get the promotion. You're like, well, that didn't work. I guess I need another promotion. This happens a lot with salary, right? Like, I'll be happy if I get a raise. I'll be happy if I get this amount of money. And you get there and you don't get as happy as you thought. And you don't think, well, I was wrong. It wasn't salary. I should go for something else. You think, ah, it wasn't enough money. You know, if I get the next promotion and the next promotion. And, you know, it's one thing to think this, you know, if you're earning, like, an average American income, but what's funny is even if you look at incredibly wealthy people, they have The same mistaken intuitions about money. On my podcast, The Happiness Lab, I interviewed this great guy, Clay Cockrell, who's a wealth psychologist. He's a, like, mental health professional that works with their rich and famous. And, you know, first, first of all, shocking is that he has a job, right? You know, based on our misconceptions, it's like, you know, the incredibly wealthy should have no mental health problems. But they have a ton. And one of the biggest ones he sees is, is exactly this. Like, these wealthy folks thought, like, when I become a millionaire, you know, then I'll be happy. And then that didn't work. You're like, well, maybe I need, I need in the tens of millions. I need to be able to buy, you know, multiple vacation houses or for people he works with in the hundred millions. It's like, well, I guess I have to become a billionaire. Once I can say I'm a billionaire, then I'll really be happy. And at no point do they go through these steps and think, like, wait a minute, you know, the last five carrots, you know, like I put for myself when I got to the carrot, it didn't work in the Way that I thought, you know, maybe I'm wrong. And so, yeah, so this is, this is, this is our bias of affective forecasting. We kind of, we get wrong, not the direction. We kind of know good things are going to make us feel good. But we definitely get wrong. The intensity and the duration that that, that boost in happiness is going to last.)
- Time 0:04:48
-

(highlight:: The Happiness Arrival Fallacy
Key takeaways:
• The arrival fallacy is a common cognitive bias that leads people to overestimate the happiness they will feel after achieving a particular goal or event.
• This bias is often caused by the unrealistic expectations that come with the arrival of a new, positive event.
Transcript:
Speaker 2
I get a promotion, when I get a relationship, when I get a new car, when I get a new house, I'll be happy then. And then why is it that we never seem to be happy when that happens? Yeah, well, this is a bias that researchers call the arrival fallacy. It's really like the happily ever after fallacy. Like, when this happens, I'll be happy.
Speaker 1
And, you know, it's not like we're mis-predicting. You know, you get a new house and, like, yeah, that feels good, but it doesn't feel as good as you're going to think. And)
- Time 0:06:22
-