(highlight:: When you carefully assess a method’s efficacy, you can find ways to best utilize your career to make a much bigger impact. To do so, we’ll look at two major considerations:

1. How efficient is the method at solving the problem?
2. How likely is the method to work?)
   - View Highlight
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Beyond its ineffectiveness and unintended consequences, “Scared Straight” was also very costly. A review of all studies performed on the program estimated that every $1 spent on “Scared Straight” caused roughly $200 in future crimes. Further, the billions of dollars spent on the program could be used in a more rigorously-studied crime prevention effort—or even put towards alternative solutions to the problem’s root causes.
- View Highlight
-

(highlight:: To gain a better sense of the effectiveness of a solution, we can ask a few questions to help clarify our uncertainties:
• Are there studies, impact reports, or research articles available that prove this intervention works? What exactly do they prove and do they spell out explicit estimates for how well it works? What are the differences and similarities between the study and the method in practice?
• How many people are working on this method and how much impact are they able to generate? How does this ratio scale or change when an organization or company grows?
• Are there other solutions to the same problem that use fewer resources (time, money, talent, etc.)? Do these alternatives provide a better or worse outcome?)
- View Highlight
-

(highlight:: in many cases, there are questions you can ask that can help you get a better general sense of a method’s likelihood of success:
• Is this solution’s success dependent on some other event or change happening—like a cultural shift, a policy change, or a new technology?
• Do a lot of external factors need to come together in order for this approach to work?
• Are there reasons to think this method might work based on science? Or on specific evidence? Or on our own logic in a new and unexplored area?)
- View Highlight
-
- [note::I'd like to keep these in mind, especially given my tendency to convince myself that X opportunity is a good option (but in reality, it's the easiest/safest option)]

(highlight:: After some initial investigating, we can zoom in to consider some of the external factors that might make a method more or less likely:
• What would be needed for this intervention to lead to an impactful outcome? Does it require many assumptions or a lot of luck along the way?
• Are there examples of similar projects or approaches that have/haven’t worked before? How are they similar or different?
• Have people been trying and failing at this approach for a long time? When possible, it can be very useful to talk to people who are doing or have done similar things.)
- View Highlight
-

Once we gain some sense of how likely a method is to work, we can start to make some assessments about its overall efficacy—that is, the combination of its efficiency and its likelihood of success.
- View Highlight
-
- [note::Efficacy = Cost-Effectiveness * Likelihood of Success]

(highlight:: Making a thorough assessment of a method’s efficacy will probably lead you to spot when a method could lead to unintended consequences. Still, it can help to ask yourself:
• Has a similar method had unintended consequences in the past? What is this organization or company doing differently to prevent them?
• What is the dynamic between an organization and its beneficiaries? Does this seem fair and equitable?)
- View Highlight
-

- View Highlight
-

(highlight:: When it comes to a method’s efficacy, we are looking for any information that indicates:

1. How well and cost-effectively it could solve the problem
2. How likely it is to work.
3. How other considerations might affect this assessment.)
   - View Highlight
   -

(highlight:: When you carefully assess a method’s efficacy, you can find ways to best utilize your career to make a much bigger impact. To do so, we’ll look at two major considerations:

1. How efficient is the method at solving the problem?
2. How likely is the method to work?)
   - View Highlight
   -

Beyond its ineffectiveness and unintended consequences, “Scared Straight” was also very costly. A review of all studies performed on the program estimated that every $1 spent on “Scared Straight” caused roughly $200 in future crimes. Further, the billions of dollars spent on the program could be used in a more rigorously-studied crime prevention effort—or even put towards alternative solutions to the problem’s root causes.
- View Highlight
-

(highlight:: To gain a better sense of the effectiveness of a solution, we can ask a few questions to help clarify our uncertainties:
• Are there studies, impact reports, or research articles available that prove this intervention works? What exactly do they prove and do they spell out explicit estimates for how well it works? What are the differences and similarities between the study and the method in practice?
• How many people are working on this method and how much impact are they able to generate? How does this ratio scale or change when an organization or company grows?
• Are there other solutions to the same problem that use fewer resources (time, money, talent, etc.)? Do these alternatives provide a better or worse outcome?)
- View Highlight
-

(highlight:: in many cases, there are questions you can ask that can help you get a better general sense of a method’s likelihood of success:
• Is this solution’s success dependent on some other event or change happening—like a cultural shift, a policy change, or a new technology?
• Do a lot of external factors need to come together in order for this approach to work?
• Are there reasons to think this method might work based on science? Or on specific evidence? Or on our own logic in a new and unexplored area?)
- View Highlight
-
- [note::I'd like to keep these in mind, especially given my tendency to convince myself that X opportunity is a good option (but in reality, it's the easiest/safest option)]

(highlight:: After some initial investigating, we can zoom in to consider some of the external factors that might make a method more or less likely:
• What would be needed for this intervention to lead to an impactful outcome? Does it require many assumptions or a lot of luck along the way?
• Are there examples of similar projects or approaches that have/haven’t worked before? How are they similar or different?
• Have people been trying and failing at this approach for a long time? When possible, it can be very useful to talk to people who are doing or have done similar things.)
- View Highlight
-

Once we gain some sense of how likely a method is to work, we can start to make some assessments about its overall efficacy—that is, the combination of its efficiency and its likelihood of success.
- View Highlight
-
- [note::Efficacy = Cost-Effectiveness * Likelihood of Success]

(highlight:: Making a thorough assessment of a method’s efficacy will probably lead you to spot when a method could lead to unintended consequences. Still, it can help to ask yourself:
• Has a similar method had unintended consequences in the past? What is this organization or company doing differently to prevent them?
• What is the dynamic between an organization and its beneficiaries? Does this seem fair and equitable?)
- View Highlight
-

- View Highlight
-

(highlight:: When it comes to a method’s efficacy, we are looking for any information that indicates:

1. How well and cost-effectively it could solve the problem
2. How likely it is to work.
3. How other considerations might affect this assessment.)
   - View Highlight
   -