“gray swan” events, which are simultaneously predictable and unprecedented. An example is the Pacific Northwest heat wave of 2021, where scientists forecasted that extreme heat could occur, but nobody foresaw how bad it would get. Gray swans, combined with nonlinear effects, tipping points, and “compound events” (where multiple disasters coincide and interact in unexpected ways) will cause climate chaos that’s “utterly new to human experience.”
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Starter options work because they create an artificial best alternative to a negotiated agreement. By introducing a default option that will be the choice unless folks can agree on something better, people are motivated to come up with something better. Once multiple options are on the table, the group can evaluate them and decide.Introducing a starter option doesn’t work when there are strong conflicting opinions. In those situations, adding a starter option just adds noise. Rather, a starter option is valuable when a group has a bunch of weakly held opinions and needs to be pushed from discussion to decision. Be warned, though: sometimes, the starter option becomes the actual outcome.
- No location available
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- [note::This reminds me of the way creativity is correlated with scope i.e. tell people to "come up with ideas", they will produce some ideas. Tell people to "come up with ideas for (X)" and they will produce substantially more.]

“gray swan” events, which are simultaneously predictable and unprecedented. An example is the Pacific Northwest heat wave of 2021, where scientists forecasted that extreme heat could occur, but nobody foresaw how bad it would get. Gray swans, combined with nonlinear effects, tipping points, and “compound events” (where multiple disasters coincide and interact in unexpected ways) will cause climate chaos that’s “utterly new to human experience.”
- No location available
-

Starter options work because they create an artificial best alternative to a negotiated agreement. By introducing a default option that will be the choice unless folks can agree on something better, people are motivated to come up with something better. Once multiple options are on the table, the group can evaluate them and decide.Introducing a starter option doesn’t work when there are strong conflicting opinions. In those situations, adding a starter option just adds noise. Rather, a starter option is valuable when a group has a bunch of weakly held opinions and needs to be pushed from discussion to decision. Be warned, though: sometimes, the starter option becomes the actual outcome.
- No location available
-
- [note::This reminds me of the way creativity is correlated with scope i.e. tell people to "come up with ideas", they will produce some ideas. Tell people to "come up with ideas for (X)" and they will produce substantially more.]