There are 4 main "camps" that I identified -- with varying levels of support and evidence.Camp 1: AI is overhyped. It is IoT V2. Cute applications of AI will be embedded into all sorts of products, but will not fundamentally change the supply / demand dynamics of the economy. Some jobs that were always going to be automated away (call centers, for example) may be automated a bit quicker. Most jobs will remain largely the same, but with some new software to use, with very small industries on the margins being impacted in any significant way (for example, content writers in India and Pakistan working for marketing teams in North America).Camp 2: AI is very impressive, but currently, it will not (and likely will never) completely replace human labor. AI will be primarily used to augment labor, not replace it. Subpar employees will be able to perform significantly better in some roles. Some functions will be able to leverage these tools to increase output significantly (anything that requires large volumes of text generation). While this will have significant impact on certain roles and industries, it will not fundamentally transform economics as we know it.Camp 3: AI is the fourth industrial revolution, and will likely have a much larger impact on the economy than the internet. Entire industries, companies, and roles will become obsolete relatively quickly. The medium-term will be fraught with volatility, mass unemployment, wealth transfer, and a major economic recalibration. The world will look very different in 10 years, and this technology will lead to incredible gains in productivity and value creation.Camp 4: AGI will usher in post-scarcity, and none of our existing economic models will work. AI will be able to do virtually any job better than any other human. We will need to completely rebuild our conception of civilization and the social contract. Nothing will look the same in a decade.
- No location available
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There are 4 main "camps" that I identified -- with varying levels of support and evidence.Camp 1: AI is overhyped. It is IoT V2. Cute applications of AI will be embedded into all sorts of products, but will not fundamentally change the supply / demand dynamics of the economy. Some jobs that were always going to be automated away (call centers, for example) may be automated a bit quicker. Most jobs will remain largely the same, but with some new software to use, with very small industries on the margins being impacted in any significant way (for example, content writers in India and Pakistan working for marketing teams in North America).Camp 2: AI is very impressive, but currently, it will not (and likely will never) completely replace human labor. AI will be primarily used to augment labor, not replace it. Subpar employees will be able to perform significantly better in some roles. Some functions will be able to leverage these tools to increase output significantly (anything that requires large volumes of text generation). While this will have significant impact on certain roles and industries, it will not fundamentally transform economics as we know it.Camp 3: AI is the fourth industrial revolution, and will likely have a much larger impact on the economy than the internet. Entire industries, companies, and roles will become obsolete relatively quickly. The medium-term will be fraught with volatility, mass unemployment, wealth transfer, and a major economic recalibration. The world will look very different in 10 years, and this technology will lead to incredible gains in productivity and value creation.Camp 4: AGI will usher in post-scarcity, and none of our existing economic models will work. AI will be able to do virtually any job better than any other human. We will need to completely rebuild our conception of civilization and the social contract. Nothing will look the same in a decade.
- No location available
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