"I suspect we have a "publication bias" of tech predictions where the pessimists don't make predictions (think the tech impossible or irrelevant, hence don't respond to queries, or find their long timescales so uncertain they are loath to state them).
- No location available
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- [note::I'm sympathetic to this. It seems as if publications featuring overly optimistic predictions would receive much more publicity than publications featuring seemingly pessimistic predictions. This is just speculative though.]

Amara’s law (that we overestimate the magnitude of short-term change and underestimate long-term change) can be explained by exponential-blindness, but also hype cycles, and integrating a technology in society is a slow process.
- No location available
- progress, change, cognitive bias,

"I suspect we have a "publication bias" of tech predictions where the pessimists don't make predictions (think the tech impossible or irrelevant, hence don't respond to queries, or find their long timescales so uncertain they are loath to state them).
- No location available
-
- [note::I'm sympathetic to this. It seems as if publications featuring overly optimistic predictions would receive much more publicity than publications featuring seemingly pessimistic predictions. This is just speculative though.]

Amara’s law (that we overestimate the magnitude of short-term change and underestimate long-term change) can be explained by exponential-blindness, but also hype cycles, and integrating a technology in society is a slow process.
- No location available
- progress, change, cognitive bias,